Troy, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

086
FXUS61 KALY 220537
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1237 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Bitter cold temperatures tonight through tomorrow morning as
gusty winds contribute to feel like temperatures in the
negatives, with Cold Weather Advisories in effect through
tomorrow morning. Cold temperatures linger through early next
week before another clipper Monday night into Christmas Eve
brings light snow accumulations.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Message:

- Very cold temperatures through tomorrow with Cold Weather
  Advisories in effect for portions eastern New York and
  western New England.

Discussion:

.Update...As of 12:35 AM EST...Arctic cold continues across the
region tonight, most of the ADKs and southern Greens already
seeing temperatures below zero. Coldest temperature so far is at
Old Forge, where it is 7 below 0 according to the NYS Mesonet.
Outside of a few lake effect clouds in the Catskills and upslope
clouds in the ADKs/southern Greens, mainly clear, cold, and
breezy conditions continue through the remainder of tonight.
Mostly just minor adjustments with this update, as previous
forecast remains on track. Please see below for more details on
the bitter cold...

.Previous...Overnight, temperatures continue to fall into the
single digits as we become clear and with the current snowpack,
temperatures fall into the negatives across the western
Adirondacks. Winds continue to gust between 15 and 20 mph
throughout tonight before decreasing late this morning, which
will contribute to feel like temperatures in the negatives. Cold
Weather Advisories continue for the western Adirondacks,
eastern Catskills, Berkshires, eastern Rensselaer county,
western Mohawk Valley, and the Helderbergs through this morning.
If you have outdoor activities planned for tomorrow, be
prepared for cold winter conditions. Visit
weather.gov/safety/cold for more best practices for staying warm
during very cold temperatures.

Winds decrease this afternoon and evening to light and
variable, but temperatures remain cold with highs in the teens
and single digits for the Adirondacks. Dry conditions are in
store through today with mostly sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

-  An Alberta Clipper system is favored (75 percent chance) to
   move through Monday night bringing periods of light snowfall
   through Christmas Eve.

Discussion:
Monday morning starts off clear, cold and dry with low
temperatures in the negatives for locations north of Mid-Hudson
Valley where they`ll see lows in the single digits. The surface
high pressure system moves off to the east Monday afternoon with
our next weather system arriving for Monday evening. An Alberta
Clipper system moves into the Great Lakes Region by Monday
evening bringing light snowfall to the western Adirondacks first
then move eastward. Depending on the center of the track of the
low, snowfall amounts for the Mid-Hudson Valley, Taconics, and
Litchfield Hills could see between a trace to a half of an inch.
Elsewhere, snowfall totals could range between 1 inch and 3
inches as probabilities are higher (greater than 75 percent) for
the snowfall amounts greater than 1 inch to be for locations
north of Albany. Periods of light snow continue throughout
Christmas Eve into overnight hours before the weather system
departs to east and high pressure moves back in. There are
chances for the Berkshires and southern Green Mountains to see
upslope snowfall where snowfall could continue into the day
Christmas, but confidence is less than 25 percent at this
forecast time for this to occur. Otherwise, temperatures remain
in the low 30s and dry conditions return for Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message:

 - Dry conditions return with trending near normal temperatures
through the end of next week.

Discussion:
Upper level ridging is favored by latest ensemble forecast
models for Christmas Day into the end of next week. Surface high
pressure builds in for the Northeast Wednesday bringing dry
conditions for Christmas Day and into the end of next week.
Ensemble forecast models are hinting at the potential of a weak
disturbance that could move through eastern New York and western
New England on Saturday, but probabilities for 24 hour
precipitation accumulations greater than 0.1 inches is low
(probabilities less than 25 percent).

Temperatures for Christmas Day begin in the teens then gradually
warming up into the low 30s for afternoon high temperatures. For
Thursday morning, temperatures range in low teens to low 20s.
High temperatures Thursday remain near normal ranging in the low
30s. Probabilities for temperatures greater than 40 degrees for
Friday are around 25 percent then increasing for Saturday to 40
percent for the Mid-Hudson Valley. Elsewhere, higher confidence
remains for temperatures to range in the low 30s into the end
of next week. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6 to 10 day
temperature outlook for eastern New York and western New
England, for December 26th into the 30th, has us 60 to 70
percent likely to see above normal temperatures for this
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals this
morning with mainly clear skies in place across most of eastern New
York and western New England. High pressure in place throughout the
06z TAF period will ensure persistence of such conditions. Winds
will remain breezy out of the northwest throughout the night tonight
with sustained speeds reaching 10-12 kt and gusts up to 20 kt. By
sunrise this morning or shortly after, sustained speeds will
decrease to under 10 kt before increasing again for a brief period
mid-morning/early afternoon at KPOU and KPSF to sustained speeds of
10-12 kt and gusts up to 20 kt possible. By tonight, speeds will
decrease to below 10 kt at all terminals.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHSN.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Christmas Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale/Webb
NEAR TERM...Main/Speciale/Webb
SHORT TERM...Webb
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Gant