Troy, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

832
FXUS61 KALY 042304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
704 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and humid day is expected tomorrow with a cold front
bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon and evening hours. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are likely Friday and Saturday as the front stalls
across the region. Temperatures will fall back to near or
slightly below normal values by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge and surface high pressure will continue to
slide off to the east through tonight, but dry weather will
continue. Lows fall back to the upper 50s to mid-60s. Thursday
will start out warm and humid before a weak cold front and
upper-level shortwave approach from the west. Temperatures will
once again reach the 80s for most areas with some valley areas
approaching 90. Heat index (or feels like temperatures) will be
near the actual air temperature with dewpoints in the 60s.
Instability will build into the afternoon with CAPE values
reaching 1000-1500 J/kg. 0-6km shear will be greatest for areas
north and west of Albany (around 30-35 kt) with lower values
south and east. The instability, shear and approaching shortwave
and cold front/prefrontal trough will support at least isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening hours. Dry mid-levels and possible inverted-v
signatures could support some strong winds gusts with the
strongest storms along with some small hail. We remain outlooked
in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms by the Storm
Prediction Center.

The front looks to stall over our region Thursday night as its
forward progression slows as an area of low pressure drifts up
the Southeast coast toward coastal North Carolina. Additional
shortwave energy tracking across the region and in proximity to
the front could support some additional rain showers overnight.
Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
We will be located within a developing longwave trough Friday
into Saturday. Multiple shortwaves will round the base of the
trough while additional low pressure systems track across the
nearly stalled frontal bounday over our region. Plenty of
moisture and forcing will result in additional rounds of showers
and thunderstorms both days. Some of these storms could bring
some locally heavy rainfall. We are outlooked in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall (potential flash flooding) for both
Friday and Saturday by the Weather Prediction Center. There
could be enough instability and shear for some stronger storms
on Friday, especially for southern areas. Will continue to
monitor trends. Even less instability is expected on Saturday so
no severe thunderstorms are expected on this day.

It will not be as warm on Friday compared to Thursday with highs
in the 70s to lower 80s. Saturday will be even cooler with highs
in the upper 60s to mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak upper level ridging looks to build near or north of our
area on Sunday, but there are some indications an upper level
shortwave will undercut the ridge across the mid-Atlantic. This
system could pass close enough to bring some additional showers
on Sunday. PoPs have increased to 25 to 40 percent for Sunday.
Thereafter, a larger and more potent upper level low will
approach from the Great Lakes early next week. This will send
another low pressure system and cold front toward our region.
This will support additional rain showers and possibly some
thunderstorms later Monday and on Tuesday. We may turn post
frontal by Wednesday but additional showers are possible being
located underneath the upper level low/cold pool aloft.
Temperatures during this period look to run slightly above
normal values with highs generally in the 70s to lower 80s and
lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00z Friday...VFR conditions are expected through the
upcoming TAF period for the terminals, with an exception of a brief
period of MVFR conditions at KGFL early Thursday morning due to
development of fog/mist in the terminal vicinity. Winds become
light/variable this evening, and increase Thursday morning out of
the southwest around 5-10 kts, with brief gusts around 15-20 kts
possible by early afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ063>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Webb
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Speck