Troy, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

548
FXUS61 KALY 301735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
135 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain and freezing rain will gradually transition to
plain rain this morning as temperatures rise above freezing
areawide. Rain showers continue through the afternoon and
tonight. Milder weather is expected on Monday ahead of a strong
cold front which will bring additional showers and possible
thunderstorms. Cooler and drier weather returns Tuesday into
Wednesday as high pressure returns.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- All Winter Weather Advisories and Ice Storm Warnings have
  been cancelled.

Discussion:

.UPDATE...As of 130 PM EDT, skies remain mostly cloudy outside
of occasional breaks of sun across portions of Schoharie County
and the eastern Catskills. Areas from Albany and points
south/east remain generally dry other than a few patches of
drizzle across higher elevations. Farther north and west, some
light showers were occurring across portions of the SW
Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley.

The showers across the western Mohawk Valley/SW Adirondacks
should increase in coverage/frequency based on upstream radars
across SW NY and west/central PA. Some of these showers may
expand farther east into the central/eastern Mohawk Valley,
eastern Catskills and north/west portions of the Capital Region
toward sunset.

South to southeast winds have increased within some north/south
oriented valleys, and may reach up to 25 mph at times this
afternoon.

Temps are struggling to climb for most areas, and expect late
afternoon highs to only reach the 40s for most areas except
35-40 across the higher elevations of southern VT and the
Berkshires. Some lower 50s could occur across portions of the
Schoharie Valley and northern Herkimer County where a few breaks
of sun are possible.

Previous Discussion:
Low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes region will send a
warm front northward resulting in temperatures rising above
freezing areawide this morning with freezing rain potential
ending. Winter Weather Advisories and Ice Storm Warnings will
remain in effect until 11am but will monitor temperature trends
to see if some zones will be able to be cancelled early. Some
breaks in the precipitation is expected this afternoon,
especially from the Capital District and points south and east,
but additional rain showers will occur for areas north and west.
Temperatures should reach the 40s and 50s in most areas though
portions of western New England may remain in the upper 30s
under a mostly cloudy sky.

Occasional weak shortwave energy will cross the region tonight
resulting in some continued scattered rain showers. Continued
south to southeasterly flow will keep temperatures elevated
tonight in the mid-30s to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Thunderstorms are possible on Monday where some could become
  strong to locally severe.

Discussion:

Low pressure tracking northeastward into Quebec will send a cold
front across the region Monday afternoon and evening. We will be
located within the warm sector of this system, however, plenty
of cloud cover may be present and forecast soundings show many
areas remaining capped under a low-level inversion. Still,
temperatures could rise into the 60s for many areas except upper
50s across portions of the Adirondacks and southern Greens. The
`capped` environment will limit instability with MUCAPE values
generally less than 500 J/kg. However, 0-6km shear values will
be around 50 kt. As a result, we are looking at a low CAPE/high
shear environment. CAMs suggest that the strong front and
enough forcing aloft will be able to develop isolated to
scattered showers and possible thunderstorms in the afternoon. A
couple of these storms could become strong to locally severe
with damaging winds the primary threat. We remain outlooked in a
marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms by the Storm
Prediction Center. Otherwise, a southerly breeze is expected on
Monday with some gusts on the order of at least 25 to 30 mph.

The combination of an area of low pressure developing along the
front and a passing upper level shortwave trough will bring an
enhancement in rainfall Monday night, especially for areas
south and east of Albany. Between 0.50 and 1.00 inches of rain
is possible in these areas with generally less than 0.50 inches
farther north and west. Temperatures begin to fall behind the
front dipping into the 30s and lower 40s by daybreak Tuesday
except mid to upper 20s across the Adirondacks. Temperatures may
fall fast enough some areas may see some snowflakes mix in
before precipitation ends.

Canadian high pressure builds in for Tuesday with a cooler but
drier day. Clouds will break for some sunshine as well. Highs
will reach the 30s and 40s for most areas. High pressure
remaining overhead will lead to ideal radiational cooling
conditions for Tuesday night leading to temperatures falling
back into the teens and 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

 - Near to slightly above normal temperatures

 - Confidence continues to increase for our next disturbance
   Wednesday into Thursday with moderate to high chances (50 to
   75%) for widespread light showers. Precipitation type will
   mainly be in the form of rain but some wintry mix is possible
   in higher terrain areas.

Discussion:

Canadian high pressure builds southward into northern New
England on Wednesday with the very dry air mass from Tuesday
(PWATs under 0.20") still in place. However, warm air advection
will strengthen through the day ahead of an approaching warm
front and sfc low lifting northward through the Midwest. Initial
overrunning precipitation likely struggles to reach the ground
so Wednesday morning likely remains dry but increased POPs to
chance for the southern/western Adirondacks and western Mohawk
Valley Wed P.M with slight chance POPs through the Capital
Region as the strongest forcing and moisture arrives. Areas east
of Albany into western New England likely remain dry Wednesday.
Otherwise, skies turn cloudy and winds become a bit breezy
ahead of the incoming front. The most widespread area of rain
showers likely occurs Wed night into Thursday as the warm
sectors spreads overhead and the associated cold front slowly
tracks through. Given the parent cyclone escapes well to our
north/west and overall moisture is lacking, expecting mainly a
light precipitation event. In fact, probabilistic guidance
suggests only 20 to 45% chance for 24-hr QPF amounts through 00
UTC Fri to exceed 0.50" from I-90 southward with 50 to 75%
chance for areas northward. While thermal profiles mainly
support plain rain, initial precipitation may fall as a wintry
mix in the higher terrain areas of the southern/western
Adirondacks, western New England and the eastern/northern
Catskills as cold air may linger while the warm nose advances
northeastward aloft. However, enough warming occurs Wed night
that any wintry mix transition to plain rain with periods of
plain rain showers continuing into daytime Thursday.
Temperatures Thursday turn mild as we enter into the warm sector
with a 20 to 30% chance for highs to exceed 70 degrees in the
Hudson Valley. Showers gradually escape south/east of the area
Thurs night into Friday as the cold front slowly exits and
settles over the mid-Atlantic as temperatures stay seasonably
mild.

A split flow pattern develops for the weekend with a compact
southern stream shortwave in the central CONUS amplifying while
a northern stream trough strengthens in southern Canada. Should
these phase as some guidance indicates, an additional surface
low could develop along our stalled boundary and lift northward,
ushering additional widespread precipitation (mainly rain) back
into the Northeast over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday...MVFR to IFR conditions will persist through
majority of the upcoming TAF period thanks to the presence of a
nearby warm front and continued low-level moisture advection.
Scattered rain showers are expected later this afternoon for the
terminals, though visibilities should remain VFR/high end MVFR as
they will be light in nature. This evening, increasing southerly
flow with the warm front lifting north will bring increased moisture
and lowering stratus to LIFR mainly at KPOU/KPSF. There is also a
threat of patchy fog, though low confidence precluded mention in the
current TAF. LLWS will also increase mainly at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF with
the arrival of a 35-45 kt LLJ, which will persist through early
morning Monday. South to southeast winds around 5-10 kts, with some
gusts near 20 kts at KALB, are expected before diminishing to under
10 kts tonight. Winds will strengthen out of the south again Monday
morning with gusts near 20 kts.

Outlook...

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some river rises are expected through early to mid week due to
the periods of rain and some eventual high terrain snowmelt.
While Adirondacks snow melt may be initially limited due to the
cooler temps on Sunday, there may be some melt Sunday night
into Monday. Overall, all of the runoff will lead to rises and a
few river points across far northern areas could get close to
flood stage early next week (late Monday into Tuesday). The
rainfall may also lead to some ponding of water in low lying
areas, as well as on roadways, especially Monday afternoon and
evening with any possible heavier showers and embedded
thunderstorms.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Rathbun/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Speck
HYDROLOGY...KL/Rathbun